location planning

Padstow Ring Contamination: 47x GP Jump Flags Bad Rural Ratios (2026)

The 5-to-15-mile GP growth test that flags a contaminated rural pharmacy catchment

By PharmSee · · 1 views

Three miles out of Padstow, PharmSee's location analyzer returns 0 GP practices and 1 pharmacy — the lowest GP count in any English town we have audited. Five miles out, the ring catches 2 GP practices and 3 pharmacies (0.67:1 ratio). Fifteen miles out, the ring catches 95 GP practices and 22 pharmacies (4.32:1 ratio).

That's a 47.5x increase in GP count between a 5-mile and a 15-mile query on the same postcode centre. No other location in PharmSee's rural atlas comes close. Padstow is a methodology problem disguised as a coastal pharmacy story, and it's the reason we are formalising the ring-contamination flag as PharmSee's third location-analyzer caveat — alongside radius-default (cycle 12) and chain-classification (cycle 14).

The raw numbers for PL28 8AE

RadiusGP practicesPharmaciesRatioWhat the ring catches
3 mi01undefinedThe single corridor pharmacy
5 mi230.67:1Wadebridge & Camel Estuary practice
10 mi77515.40:1The entire Newquay/St Columb cluster
15 mi95224.32:1Bodmin, Wadebridge, Newquay, Liskeard

The growth isn't linear. Between 3 mi and 5 mi you pick up a single new GP practice. Between 5 mi and 10 mi you pick up seventy-five more GP practices — that is a fifteenfold jump, one ring step, and it tells you something real about North Cornwall's geography: the GPs cluster inland 8-12 miles south of the coast, and Padstow sits on the far side of that cluster.

What contamination means in ratio language

A "clean" rural ring adds GPs proportionally to its area (roughly 1.8x between 5 mi and 10 mi, because the ring's area grows 4x but density is lower at the edges). When GP count instead grows 15-50x between adjacent rings, the outer ring is not measuring a single rural catchment — it is measuring the closest metropolitan cluster plus everything in between.

Here's what five rural benchmarks look like across the same 5→15 mile GP growth ratio, using PharmSee's location analyzer at standard postcode centres:

Location5 mi GP15 mi GPGrowth factorRing status
Penzance TR185173.4xClean — isolated peninsula
Bude EX23155.0xClean — North Cornwall coast
Horncastle LN93258.3xBorderline — catches Louth/Skegness
Louth LN1155511.0xContaminated — catches Grimsby conurbation
Holt NR2512121.0xContaminated — catches Norwich approach
Padstow PL2829547.5xSevere — catches Newquay + Bodmin + Liskeard

Penzance is the clean reference: a true isolated peninsula. GP growth stays modest because Land's End is at the edge of the world. Anything above 10x is a flag that your "rural pharmacy catchment" query is actually pulling a mixed urban-rural population.

The proposed rule

From cycle 21 onward, PharmSee's rural articles should apply this test before quoting ring ratios:

If the 5→15 mile GP count growth exceeds 10x, flag the ratio as contaminated and either (a) quote only the 3-5 mile ring with a population caveat, or (b) publish both rings and label the outer one "corridor reach" rather than "catchment".

The rule follows directly from the cycle 14 two-ring rural reporting convention (5 mi → 15 mi pairs as the rural default) but adds a quantitative test for when the 15 mi figure is load-bearing.

Padstow's three Boots branches in the 5-mile ring

The three PL28 5-mile pharmacies are a Boots (FAG61, PL28 8AL), a Wadebridge-area independent, and the cycle 12 Padstow Boots branch (FA306 at PL28 8AE, flagged in an earlier PharmSee cycle as the lowest-revenue Boots branch measured in our register at ~£66,647 per year). That is the entire PharmSee retail population within a 5-mile drive of Padstow. Dropping to the 15 mi ring gives you 22 pharmacies, but 19 of them are not Padstow pharmacies — they are Newquay's and Bodmin's, and they do not serve Padstow residents in any operational sense.

What gets mis-reported without the flag

Without the ring-contamination flag, a 15-mile GP:pharmacy ratio on Padstow reads as 4.32:1 — one of the highest "under-served" ratios in PharmSee's rural atlas. That is a false positive. The ratio is high because the GP ring is catching Bodmin and Newquay while the pharmacy ring is catching the same towns with their fuller retail coverage intact. The actual Padstow pharmacy catchment is 5 pharmacies across the 10 mi ring serving a hyper-seasonal ~8,000 permanent-population corridor that swells 3-5x in summer. Pharmacy First revenue per branch is structurally constrained by seasonal labour-market friction, not by GP density.

Related PharmSee methodology

Try it yourself

Sources

  • PharmSee location analyzer, PL28 8AE, 2026-04-11 queries at 3/5/10/15 mi
  • PharmSee rural atlas cycles 10-20 — Lincolnshire Wolds, North Cornwall, Norfolk coast benchmarks